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Computer-Based Prognostic Task Measurements as Indicators of Uncertainty Acceptance
Vitalii Epishin1, Nataliya Bogacheva1
1Clinical Psychology Department, I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University (Sechenov University), Moscow 119991, Russia.
European Journal of Investigation in Health, Psychology and Education
|September 20, 2021
Summary
This study explored individual differences in prognostic decision-making using a novel computerized task. Findings revealed distinct uncertainty control strategies linked to personality and cognitive variables.
Area of Science:
- Psychology
- Cognitive Science
- Decision Science
Background:
- Limited research exists on individual differences in prognostic decision-making, with a focus on novice vs. expert distinctions.
- Understanding psychological factors influencing prognostic tasks is crucial for improving decision-making accuracy.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate information processing and uncertainty control in prognostic decision-making.
- To identify patterns in prognostic task performance and their correlation with personality and cognitive variables.
- To explore individual differences in managing uncertainty during prognostic tasks.
Main Methods:
- Developed a novel, computerized prognostic task not requiring specific expertise.
- Employed a quasi-experimental design with 78 participants (aged 17-66).
- Administered five personality questionnaires and a cognitive abilities test.
Main Results:
- Cluster analysis identified two distinct patterns of task performance.
- Significant differences in intolerance for uncertainty were observed between the two clusters.
- These patterns suggest different uncertainty control strategies in prognostic decision-making.
Conclusions:
- Individual differences in prognostic decision-making are linked to distinct uncertainty control strategies.
- Personality and cognitive variables play a role in shaping these strategies.
- The findings offer insights into the psychological underpinnings of prognostic decision-making.
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