External validation of Chronic Pancreatitis Prognosis Score (COPPS): A prospective cohort study

Prognostic stratification in ChronicPancreatitis(CP) remains suboptimal and cumbersome. Chronic Pancreatitis Prognostic Score(COPPS) was recently developed to predict one-year hospitalisations in CP.

External validation of COPPS in a geographically divergent patient population.

A single-center prospective cohort study, conducted on out-patients of a tertiary-care hospital. Consecutive adults with CP were assessed for COPPS risk predictors at baseline, similar to the original development cohort, and followed for one-year for: 1)hospitalisations; 2)development of pancreatitis-related complications; and 3)need for endoscopic and/or surgical interventions. Outcomes were compared by Kendall's tau-b(τ_b) and other statistical tests. Only those who had complete one-year follow-up were included in analysis.

There were 177 patients(mean±SD age: 35.9 ± 11.2 years), 116(65%) males and 117(66%) with Idiopathic CP. Despite being younger, with significantly more females and Idiopathic CP, than the original development cohort, our cohort was similar to the latter regarding COPPS severity at baseline. Eight patients died over one-year; 169 were evaluated for outcomes. Increasingly severe COPPS categories correlated with increasing number of hospitalisations(both overall and pancreatitis-related) and increasing number of days spent in hospital(both overall and pancreatitis-related) irrespective of age at symptoms-onset(≤35 vs >35years), etiology(idiopathic vs alcohol) and smoking-status.

COPPS is effective in a geographically distinct cohort having a different case-mix of CP patients(ClincialTrials.gov ID:NCT04907266).