Predictors of type 2 diabetes relapse after Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass: A ten-year follow-up study

To assess the impact of bariatric surgery on remission and relapse of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) at 10 years of follow-up and analyze predictive factors.

Eighty-eight obese subjects undergoing Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) and 25 subjects assigned to medical therapy (MT) were evaluated every year for 10 years. T2DM remission was defined by the American Diabetes Association criteria.

Body mass index (BMI), fasting glucose, and haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) improved more markedly in RYGB than MT patients throughout the 10-year period. Post-surgery remission rates were 74% and 53% at 1 and 10 years, respectively, while remission did not occur in MT patients. One-year post-surgery, BMI decreased more in subjects with remission than in those without, but no further decrease was observed thereafter. By partial-least-squares analysis, T2DM duration, baseline HbA1c, and ensuing insulin therapy were the strongest predictors of remission. Remission was achieved at one year in 91% of patients with T2DM duration < 4 years, and 79% of them remained in remission at 10 years. On the contrary only 42% of patients with T2DM duration ≥ 4 years achieved remission, which was maintained only in 6% at the end of 10 years. By survival analysis, patients with T2DM duration < 4 years had higher remission rates than those with duration ≥ 4 years (hazards ratio (HR) 3.1 [95%CI 1.8-5.7]). Relapse did not occur before two years post-surgery and was much less frequent in patients with < 4- vs ≥ 4-year duration (HR 11.8 [4.9-29.4]).

Short T2DM duration and good glycemic control before RYGB surgery were the best requisites for a long-lasting T2DM remission, whereas weight loss had no impact on the long-term relapse of T2DM.