Childhood waist growth curves and adult diabetes

Our primary objectives are to empirically identify distinct childhood groups based on trajectories of waist circumference (WC) and waist circumference index measurements, and then to estimate associations between these groups and adult diabetes incidence, as well as other outcomes, including blood pressure, body size, body composition, and hemoglobin levels. Childhood WC and height measurements as well as various adult measurements are taken from participants in the Fels Longitudinal Study. Childhood groups are identified using group-based trajectory modeling. Associations between the resulting group probabilities and adult outcomes are examined using mixed models. Our results show that distinct childhood groups are identifiable for both waist size measurements, with growth curves exhibited by these groups becoming distinguishably separate at around 4 years of age. Higher probabilities for groups exhibiting the larger waist size for either measurement were estimated to have higher risks of developing diabetes in adulthood. Associations were also observed between group probabilities and systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, and various anthropomorphic measurements, with most associations consistently occurring in early adulthood. These findings expand upon the existing literature, showing that childhood trends in waist size, distinguishable at ages as early as 4 years, are associated with adult Type-2 diabetes.