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Global Climate Change01:50

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Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
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The average temperature of Earth is the subject of much current discussion. Earth is in radiative contact with both the Sun and dark space; it receives almost all its energy from the radiation of the Sun and reflects some of it into outer space. Dark space is very cold, about 3 K, so Earth radiates energy into it. For instance, heat transfer occurs from soil and grasses, the rate of which can be so rapid that frost can occur on clear summer evenings, even in warm latitudes.
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Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions
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Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100.

Christopher Lyon1,2, Erin E Saupe3, Christopher J Smith2,4

  • 1Department of Natural Resource Sciences, McGill University, Ste Anne de Bellevue, Quebec, Canada.

Global Change Biology
|September 24, 2021
PubMed
Summary

Human activities are altering Earth's climate, with severe impacts extending far beyond 2100. This study models climate change to 2500, revealing critical risks to food security and habitability without immediate, substantial emissions reductions.

Keywords:
adaptationclimate changeclimate modelscrop projectionsheat stress

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Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Environmental Science
  • Ecology

Background:

  • Anthropogenic activities are driving significant changes in Earth's climate and ecosystems.
  • Rising greenhouse gas concentrations necessitate long-term climate projections beyond the current 2100 benchmark.
  • Current climate change assessments often overlook the profound impacts extending beyond this century.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To model climate change impacts up to the year 2500.
  • To quantify projected changes in crop viability and heat stress.
  • To emphasize the need for long-term horizon scanning in climate change policy.

Main Methods:

  • Climate modeling under various emission scenarios up to 2500.
  • Quantification of crop viability and heat stress projections.
  • Analysis of climate change effects on human habitability and well-being.

Main Results:

  • Global climate impacts are projected to escalate significantly after 2100 without rapid mitigation efforts.
  • Critical challenges for food production and climate-induced human migration are expected before 2100.
  • Certain regions may become uninhabitable beyond the 22nd century due to escalating climate change.

Conclusions:

  • Climate change projections and policy considerations must extend beyond 2100.
  • Urgent and substantial greenhouse gas emissions reductions are crucial to mitigate severe, long-term climate impacts.
  • Failure to plan beyond 2100 risks severe disruptions to human well-being and global habitability.