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Assays for the Identification of Novel Antivirals against Bluetongue Virus
Published on: October 11, 2013
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Modelling bluetongue risk in Kazakhstan.
Sarsenbay K Abdrakhmanov1, Kanatzhan K Beisembayev1, Akmetzhan A Sultanov2
1Saken Seifullin Kazakh Agrotechnical University, Nur-Sultan (Astana), Kazakhstan.
Parasites & Vectors
|September 26, 2021
Summary
Bluetongue virus (BTV) transmission risk in Kazakhstan is highest from April to September, peaking in July in the north. Winter months (October-March) show no transmission risk, aiding targeted surveillance and vaccination strategies.
Area of Science:
- Veterinary Epidemiology
- Arthropod-borne Diseases
- Disease Modeling
Background:
- Bluetongue virus (BTV) is a significant pathogen affecting ruminants, transmitted by Culicoides biting midges.
- Serological data and vector presence suggest BTV transmission is plausible in Kazakhstan.
- Understanding transmission dynamics is crucial for disease management in the region.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate the spatiotemporal risk of bluetongue virus transmission in Kazakhstan.
- To identify periods and geographical areas with the highest risk of BTV outbreaks.
- To inform surveillance and vaccination strategies for bluetongue in Kazakhstan.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a mathematical model to calculate the basic reproduction number (R₀) for bluetongue.
- Incorporated livestock density and climate data from 2466 communities to estimate vector density.
- Generated monthly R₀ estimates and visualized transmission risk using isopleth maps.
Main Results:
- Bluetongue transmission is not predicted during winter months (October-March).
- Low transmission risk emerges in southern Kazakhstan in April, spreading north and intensifying.
- Peak transmission risk occurs in northern Kazakhstan during July, declining by September.
Conclusions:
- Identified seasonal patterns of bluetongue transmission risk in Kazakhstan.
- Results provide a framework for optimizing surveillance and early detection of BTV outbreaks.
- Informed targeted vaccination campaigns to mitigate bluetongue disease spread.
