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Updated: Oct 19, 2025

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COVID-19's U.S. Temperature Response Profile.

Richard T Carson1, Samuel L Carson2, Thayne K Dye3

  • 1Department of Economics, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA USA.

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|September 27, 2021
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

COVID-19 transmission is highly sensitive to temperature. This study quantifies the temperature response profile (TRP) for COVID-19, revealing significant impacts on case counts and forecasting models.

Keywords:
Data temporal alignmentEpidemiologyForecastingTemperature sensitivity

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Environmental Science
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Daily COVID-19 death counts reported by U.S. states were initially erratic.
  • Death certificate data provides a more reliable measure for epidemiological analysis.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate the U.S. temperature response profile (TRP) for COVID-19.
  • To assess the sensitivity of COVID-19 transmission to temperature variations.
  • To develop a forecasting model for COVID-19 trends.

Main Methods:

  • Replaced daily death counts with death certificate data for improved accuracy.
  • Developed a week-ahead statistical forecasting model utilizing death certificate data.
  • Isolated and quantified the COVID-19 temperature response profile (TRP).

Main Results:

  • The COVID-19 TRP was found to be highly sensitive to temperature.
  • Normalized counts at 31°C scaled up to 160% at 5°C in static conditions.
  • Positive case counts exhibited greater temperature sensitivity than death counts.
  • Dynamic feedback from growing infection pools amplified temperature effects during declining temperatures.

Conclusions:

  • The estimated TRP can inform COVID-19 planning and SEIR models for forecasting.
  • The TRP accurately predicted per capita case growth rates across states.
  • Temperature variations influence herd immunity levels and R0 for different COVID-19 variants.