Risk Stratification in Patients with Ischemic Stroke and Residual Cardiovascular Risk with Current Secondary...

Suboptimal secondary prevention in patients with stroke causes a remaining cardiovascular risk desirable to reduce. We have validated a prognostic model for secondary preventive settings and estimated future cardiovascular risk and theoretical benefit of reaching guideline recommended risk factor targets.

The SMART-REACH (Secondary Manifestations of Arterial Disease-Reduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health) model for 10-year and lifetime risk of cardiovascular events was applied to 465 patients in the Norwegian Cognitive Impairment After Stroke (Nor-COAST) study, a multicenter observational study with two-year follow-up by linkage to national registries for cardiovascular disease and mortality. The residual risk when reaching recommended targets for blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking cessation and antithrombotics was estimated.

In total, 11.2% had a new event. Calibration plots showed adequate agreement between estimated and observed 2-year prognosis (C-statistics 0.63, 95% confidence interval 0.55-0.71). Median estimated 10-year risk of recurrent cardiovascular events was 42% (Interquartile range (IQR) 32-54%) and could be reduced to 32% by optimal guideline-based therapy. The corresponding numbers for lifetime risk were 70% (IQR 63-76%) and 61%. We estimated an overall median gain of 1.4 (IQR 0.2-3.4) event-free life years if guideline targets were met.

Secondary prevention was suboptimal and residual risk remains elevated even after optimization according to current guidelines. Considerable interindividual variation in risk exists, with a corresponding variation in benefit from intensification of treatment. The SMART-REACH model can be used to identify patients with the largest benefit from more intensive treatment and follow-up.