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Inferring the Main Drivers of SARS-CoV-2 Global Transmissibility by Feature Selection Methods
Marko Djordjevic1, Igor Salom2, Sofija Markovic1
1Faculty of Biology Quantitative Biology Group Institute of Physiology and Biochemistry University of Belgrade Belgrade Serbia.
Geohealth
|September 27, 2021
Summary
Global wealth, measured by GDP per capita, is the primary driver of SARS-CoV-2 spread (basic reproduction number, R0). Factors like crowdedness and lifestyle also modulate COVID-19 transmission.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Environmental Science
Background:
- Understanding SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility is vital for managing COVID-19 outbreaks.
- The basic reproduction number (R0) quantifies disease spread potential, independent of testing or interventions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify key demographic and meteorological factors influencing the R0 of SARS-CoV-2 globally.
- To disentangle complex variable interactions affecting infectious disease transmission.
Main Methods:
- Utilized Principal Component Analysis (PCA) combined with regression-based feature selection.
- Analyzed global data to identify robust predictors of R0.
Main Results:
- Country's wealth (GDP per capita/HDI) emerged as the strongest predictor of R0, likely reflecting population contact frequency.
- Other significant modulators include built-up area per capita (crowdedness), onset of infection, migration, lifestyle factors (pollution), seasonality, and BCG vaccination prevalence.
Conclusions:
- Economic development is a primary determinant of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility.
- Naïve analyses may misinterpret the influence of variables correlated with, but not directly driving, R0.
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