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Related Experiment Video

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Quantifying the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 viral load and infectiousness.

Aurélien Marc1, Marion Kerioui1, François Blanquart1,2

  • 1Université de Paris, IAME, INSERM, Paris, France.

Elife
|September 27, 2021
PubMed
Summary

High SARS-CoV-2 viral load significantly increases infection risk, especially in households. Transmission probability peaks at symptom onset, with variants potentially increasing risk further.

Keywords:
SARS-CoV-2computational biologyepidemiologyhumaninfectious diseaseinfectious diseasesmicrobiology

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Area of Science:

  • Virology
  • Epidemiology
  • Infectious Diseases

Background:

  • The relationship between SARS-CoV-2 viral load and infectiousness remains unclear.
  • Understanding this link is crucial for effective public health interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantify the association between SARS-CoV-2 viral load and the probability of transmission.
  • To assess the impact of symptom onset and variants of concern on transmission dynamics.

Main Methods:

  • Reconstruction of viral load at the time of contact in a cohort of cases and high-risk contacts.
  • Inference of infection probability based on measured viral load.
  • Modeling the projected effects of variants on transmission probability.

Main Results:

  • Higher viral load significantly increased transmission probability, reaching 48% at >10^10 copies/mL, particularly in household contacts.
  • Transmission probability peaked at symptom onset (mean 29%), with substantial individual variation.
  • Variants of concern, with 2-8 fold increased viral load, may increase household transmission by 24-58% and non-household transmission by 15-39%.

Conclusions:

  • Viral load is a critical determinant of SARS-CoV-2 infectiousness.
  • Symptom onset represents the period of highest transmission risk.
  • Emerging variants may significantly enhance SARS-CoV-2 transmission potential.