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Reductions in crop yields across China from elevated ozone.

Yuanlin Wang1, Oliver Wild2, Kirsti Ashworth2

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Summary

High ozone concentrations significantly reduce crop yields in China, threatening food security. Estimated annual losses range from 34-91 million metric tonnes, with winter wheat production particularly affected.

Keywords:
AOT40Air quality modelCrop yield lossHigh resolutionInterannual variationsM7/M12POD(3)IAM

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Area of Science:

  • Agricultural Science
  • Environmental Science
  • Atmospheric Chemistry

Background:

  • Ground-level ozone (O3) pollution poses a significant threat to global food security by reducing crop yields.
  • Accurate assessment of ozone-induced yield losses is crucial for developing mitigation strategies, especially in major agricultural regions like China.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To provide comprehensive estimates of crop yield losses attributed to ozone in China from 2014-2017.
  • To compare yield loss estimates derived from concentration-based and flux-based ozone metrics.
  • To investigate the impact of growing season definition on estimated yield losses.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a 5 km resolution air quality model to simulate ozone concentrations.
  • Employed crop-specific dose-response functions, including both concentration- and flux-based metrics.
  • Bias-corrected modeled ozone data using observations from over 1000 locations.
  • Analyzed yield losses for key crops, with a focus on winter wheat.

Main Results:

  • Estimated average annual production losses for key crops ranged from 34-91 million metric tonnes (Mt/yr) across China.
  • Winter wheat production losses increased by 82% from 2014 to 2017, with significant variations in the North China Plain and eastern China.
  • Flux-based estimates for winter wheat losses were lower (30 Mt/yr) compared to concentration-based methods.
  • The definition of the growing season had a greater impact on estimated losses than minor biases in ozone concentrations.

Conclusions:

  • Increasing ozone concentrations have substantial adverse impacts on crop yields in China, posing a threat to national food security.
  • Mitigation strategies to control ozone concentrations are essential to reduce negative impacts on agriculture.
  • Further research is needed to refine estimates and understand the complex interactions between ozone, crop physiology, and environmental factors.