Empirical Bayes estimation of pairwise maximum entropy model for nonlinear brain state dynamics

The pairwise maximum entropy model (pMEM) has recently gained widespread attention to exploring the nonlinear characteristics of brain state dynamics observed in resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rsfMRI). Despite its unique advantageous features, the practical application of pMEM for individuals is limited as it requires a much larger sample than conventional rsfMRI scans. Thus, this study proposes an empirical Bayes estimation of individual pMEM using the variational expectation-maximization algorithm (VEM-MEM). The performance of the VEM-MEM is evaluated for several simulation setups with various sample sizes and network sizes. Unlike conventional maximum likelihood estimation procedures, the VEM-MEM can reliably estimate the individual model parameters, even with small samples, by effectively incorporating the group information as the prior. As a test case, the individual rsfMRI of children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is analyzed compared to that of typically developed children using the default mode network, executive control network, and salient network, obtained from the Healthy Brain Network database. We found that the nonlinear dynamic properties uniquely established on the pMEM differ for each group. Furthermore, pMEM parameters are more sensitive to group differences and are better associated with the behavior scores of ADHD compared to the Pearson correlation-based functional connectivity. The simulation and experimental results suggest that the proposed method can reliably estimate the individual pMEM and characterize the dynamic properties of individuals by utilizing empirical information of the group brain state dynamics.