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An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
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Model for Risk Calculation and Reliability Comparison of Level Crossings
Pamela Ercegovac1, Gordan Stojić1, Miloš Kopić1
1Faculty of Technical Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 6, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia.
Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)
|September 28, 2021
Summary
This study introduces a novel model to assess and enhance safety at railway-road level crossings. By analyzing risk and reliability, the model prioritizes improvements, reducing accident potential.
Area of Science:
- Transportation Engineering
- Risk Analysis
- Reliability Engineering
Background:
- Railway-road level crossings pose significant accident risks globally.
- Passive level crossings, common in Serbia, contribute to a high number of accidents.
- Prioritizing safety upgrades at level crossings requires robust risk and reliability analysis.
Purpose of the Study:
- To present a model for calculating maximal risk and reliability at railway-road level crossings.
- To enable informed decision-making for enhancing safety at high-risk crossings.
- To provide a framework for comparing real and maximal risk to improve safety levels.
Main Methods:
- Utilizing a heterogeneous queuing system model.
- Applying maximum entropy principles with exponential distribution.
- Employing a Markovian system solved analytically.
- Input parameters include geometric characteristics and traffic flow intensities.
Main Results:
- A method for calculating maximal risk under virtual operating conditions.
- Real risk is determined using statistical accident records and flow data.
- Level crossing reliability is calculated as the ratio of real to maximal risk.
Conclusions:
- The developed model provides a quantitative basis for assessing level crossing safety.
- Comparing real and maximal risk allows for targeted safety interventions.
- This approach is crucial for systematically improving safety at railway-road intersections worldwide.
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