Developing a Conceptual Model for the Post-COVID-19 Pandemic Changing Tourism Risk Perception

Area of Science:

• Tourism Studies
• Risk Management
• Behavioral Science

Background:

• The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted global tourism, necessitating empirical research for recovery strategies.
• Understanding evolving perceptions of tourism risks, traveler experiences, and behavioral intentions is critical for destination management.
• Existing research lacks a comprehensive model to explain how disaster perceptions influence travel decisions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To propose a conceptual model and hypotheses on perceived tourism risks (natural and man-made disasters) and their association with travel experience and behavior.
• To identify key areas for future empirical research in tourism risk perception and disaster management.
• To provide a theoretical foundation for post-pandemic tourism strategy development.

Main Methods:

• Literature review and discussion to develop a conceptual model.
• Identification of theoretical gaps and areas for future empirical investigation.
• Formulation of hypotheses linking perceived risks, experience, and behavioral intention.

Main Results:

• A conceptual model is proposed, outlining the relationships between perceived tourism risks, expected travel experience, and ultimate travel behavior.
• Several research areas are identified, including risk perception complexity, information dissemination effects, destination image, and local crisis perception.
• The study lays the groundwork for empirical testing of these relationships.

Conclusions:

• Destination authorities should enhance disaster preparedness and emergency response.
• Maintaining emotional solidarity between tourists and residents is vital.
• Mitigating health and psychological risks is crucial for rebuilding traveler confidence and destination appeal.