Data-Driven Management-A Dynamic Occupancy Approach to Enhanced Rabies Surveillance Prioritization

Area of Science:

• Veterinary Science
• Wildlife Ecology
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Rabies lyssavirus (RABV) is endemic in eastern US raccoons, managed via oral rabies vaccination (ORV).
• The National Rabies Management Program (NRMP) uses Enhanced Rabies Surveillance (ERS) to monitor RABV and assess ORV effectiveness.
• ERS assigns points to specimen collection methods to prioritize high-value samples.

Purpose of the Study:

• To re-evaluate the point values within the Enhanced Rabies Surveillance (ERS) system using a dynamic occupancy model.
• To assess the impact of the ERS specimen point system on surveillance data efficiency from 2012-2019.

Main Methods:

• Utilized 2016-2019 ERS data to re-evaluate specimen point values with a dynamic occupancy model.
• Analyzed ERS data from 2012-2015 and 2016-2019 to determine the effect of the point system on surveillance outcomes.

Main Results:

• The ERS point system significantly increased specimen positivity rates by 64%, enhancing rabies detection efficiency.
• Re-evaluation confirmed most specimen point values accurately reflected their diagnostic utility.
• Samples from deceased animals were found to be significantly more valuable for rabies detection than initially assigned (original 5 points, new 20 points).

Conclusions:

• Specimen prioritization strategies, like the ERS point system, are effective in refining wildlife rabies surveillance.
• Adjusting point values, particularly for deceased animals, can further optimize ERS efficiency for rabies management.
• This study highlights the value of data-driven re-evaluation for improving wildlife disease surveillance programs.