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Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
Mathematical models for assessing vaccination scenarios in several provinces in Indonesia
N Nuraini1, K K Sukandar1, P Hadisoemarto2
1Department of Mathematics, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, 40116, Indonesia.
Abstract:
To mitigate casualties from the COVID-19 outbreak, this study aims at assessing the optimal vaccination scenarios, considering several existing healthcare conditions and assumptions, by developing SIQRD (Susceptible-Infected-Quarantine-Recovery-Death) models for Jakarta, West Java, and Banten, in Indonesia. The models include an age-structured dynamic transmission model that naturally allows for different treatments among different age groups of the population. The simulation results show that the timing and period of the vaccination should be well planned and prioritizing particular age groups will give a significant impact on the total number of casualties.
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