Modelling the influenza disease burden in people aged 50-64 and ≥65 years in Australia

Estimation of influenza disease burden is necessary to monitor the impact of intervention programmes. This study aims to estimate the attributable fraction of respiratory and circulatory disease due to influenza among Australian adults 50-64 and ≥65 years of age.

A semi-parametric generalised-additive model was used to estimate annual and average rate of influenza-attributable hospitalisation and death per 100,000 population under the principal diagnosis of influenza/pneumonia, respiratory, circulatory and myocardial infarction (MI) from 2001 through 2017.

Over the study period, seasonal influenza accounted for an estimated annual average respiratory hospitalisation rate of 78.9 (95%CI: 76.3, 81.4) and 287.5 (95%CI: 279.8, 295.3) per 100,000 population in adults aged 50-64 and ≥65 years, respectively. The corresponding respiratory mortality rates were 0.9 (95%CI: 0.7, 1.2) and 18.2 (95%CI: 16.9, 19.4) per 100,000 population. The 2017 season had the highest influenza-attributable respiratory hospitalisations in both age groups, and respiratory complications were estimated approximately 2.5 times higher than the average annual estimate in adults aged ≥65 years in 2017. For mortality, on average, influenza attributed 1,080 circulatory and 361 MI deaths in adults aged ≥65 years per year. Influenza accounted for 1% and 2.8% of total MI deaths in adults aged 50-64 and ≥65 years, respectively.

Rates of cardiorespiratory morbidity and mortality were high in older adults, whilst the younger age group contributed a lower disease burden. Extension of influenza vaccination programme beyond the targeted population could be an alternative strategy to reduce the burden of influenza.