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COVID-19-associated mortality across the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council and how it compares to Europe: A
1University of Jordan, Faculty of Medicine, Amman, Jordan.
Insights
COVID-19 mortality rates were significantly lower in the Gulf region compared to Europe by May 2020. This study analyzed Case Fatality Rates (CFR), considering factors like population age and testing.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Infectious Disease Research
Background:
- The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in late 2019 and rapidly spread globally, reaching the Gulf region in January 2020.
- Significant increases in COVID-19 cases were observed across Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, necessitating regional health assessments.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess and compare the COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR) in Gulf Cooperation Council countries against European nations.
- To investigate potential factors influencing COVID-19 mortality differences between these regions.
Main Methods:
- Utilized World Health Organization (WHO) official statistics from January to May 2020 for data analysis.
- Calculated Case Fatality Rates (CFR) for all GCC and selected European countries.
- Incorporated COVID-19 testing rates per 1000 population and Health Access and Quality Index for comparative accuracy.
Main Results:
- Gulf region CFRs (as of May 12, 2020) ranged from 0.06% (Qatar) to 1.06% (UAE).
- In contrast, 10 European countries reported CFRs exceeding 10%, with most above 3% during the same period.
Conclusions:
- COVID-19 mortality rates were substantially lower in the Gulf region compared to Europe.
- A younger population demographic and a smaller elderly population in the Gulf region are key factors contributing to lower CFR.
- Other influential factors include testing capacity, healthcare system capabilities, and variations in death reporting criteria.
Introduction:
In late 2019, a novel strain of coronavirus, discovered in the city of Wuhan, China, was found to cause a disease later named coronavirus disease 2019, or COVID-19. In January 2020, COVID-19 first reached the Gulf region. Afterwards, the disease spread rapidly across the countries of the Gulf and the number of COVID-19 cases rose significantly. Now, more than a year later, there are only a limited number of studies regarding COVID-19 and its behavior in this region. In this article, we aim to assess the mortality caused by the disease in the Gulf region by calculating the Case Fatality Rates (CFR) for all of the Gulf Cooperation countries and comparing the results with those of Europe.
Methods:
Data was obtained from the official statistics of the World Health Organization (WHO) from January to May 2020. From the data, the CFR was calculated for every Gulf and European country included in the study. Following the calculation, the results were compared and analyzed. To make our comparison more accurate, we added the total number of COVID-19 tests per 1000 population and the Health Access and Quality index for each individual country.
Results:
CFRs in the Gulf region to May 12, 2020 were: United Arab Emirates (1.06%), Kuwait (0.69%), Saudi Arabia (0.62%), Oman (0.45%), Bahrain (0.15%), and Qatar (0.06%). Within Europe over the same time period, 10 countries had CFRs above 10%, with the majority above 3%.
Conclusions:
Compared to Europe, the COVID-19 mortality rate in the Gulf region has been much lower. The difference in age groups between the Gulf region and Europe may be the most important factor, mainly due to a younger population and a smaller elderly demographic in the Gulf region. Although age is a strong factor for the lower CFR in the Gulf, other factors must also be considered. These include the number of COVID-19 tests conducted per population, different country capabilities, and varying criteria for reporting COVID-19 deaths(Table-1)(Table-2).
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