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Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects
Scott Power1,2,3, Matthieu Lengaigne4, Antonietta Capotondi5,6
1Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, QLD, Australia.
Tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) significantly influences global climate patterns. Understanding TPDV is crucial for predicting climate shifts on multiyear to multidecadal timescales.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Oceanography
- Atmospheric Science
Background:
- The tropical Pacific is a key driver of global climate variability.
- El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents interannual climate variability in this region.
- Tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) significantly impacts the climate system on longer timescales.
Purpose of the Study:
- To define and characterize tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV).
- To explore the broad scope of TPDV, encompassing multiyear to multidecadal changes.
- To provide a unified framework for understanding decadal climate dynamics in the tropical Pacific.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of climate data across atmosphere, ocean, and land in the tropical Pacific.
- Characterization of decadal variations in the mean state.
- Investigation of externally forced decadal changes.
- Examination of decadal variations in high-frequency modes like ENSO.
Main Results:
- TPDV encompasses a wide range of decadal climate variations and changes.
- This variability affects atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial systems within the tropical Pacific.
- TPDV includes shifts in the mean state and alterations in ENSO behavior.
Conclusions:
- TPDV is a critical component of the Earth's climate system.
- A comprehensive understanding of TPDV is essential for global climate prediction.
- Further research into TPDV will improve climate models and forecasts.
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