Personalized Prediction of Short- and Long-Term PTH Changes in Maintenance Hemodialysis Patients

Background: Personalized management of secondary hyperparathyroidism is a critical part of hemodialysis patient care. We used a mathematical model of parathyroid gland (PTG) biology to predict (1) short-term peridialytic intact PTH (iPTH) changes in response to diffusive calcium (Ca) fluxes and (2) to predict long-term iPTH levels. Methods: We dialyzed 26 maintenance hemodialysis patients on a single occasion with a dialysate Ca concentration of 1.75 mmol/l to attain a positive dialysate-to-blood ionized Ca (iCa) gradient and thus diffusive Ca loading. Intradialytic iCa kinetics, peridialytic iPTH change, and dialysate-sided iCa mass balance (iCaMB) were assessed. Patient-specific PTG model parameters were estimated using clinical, medication, and laboratory data. We then used the personalized PTG model to predict peridialytic and long-term (6-months) iPTH levels. Results: At dialysis start, the median dialysate-to-blood iCa gradient was 0.3 mmol/l (IQR 0.11). The intradialytic iCa gain was 488 mg (IQR 268). Median iPTH decrease was 75% (IQR 15) from pre-dialysis 277 to post-dialysis 51 pg/ml. Neither iCa gradient nor iCaMB were significantly associated with peridialytic iPTH changes. The personalized PTG model accurately predicted both short-term, treatment-level peridialytic iPTH changes (r = 0.984, p < 0.001, n = 26) and patient-level 6-months iPTH levels (r = 0.848, p < 0.001, n = 13). Conclusions: This is the first report showing that both short-term and long-term iPTH dynamics can be predicted using a personalized mathematical model of PTG biology. Prospective studies are warranted to explore further model applications, such as patient-level prediction of iPTH response to PTH-lowering treatment.