A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries

We studied the COVID-19 pandemic evolution in selected African countries. For each country considered, we modeled simultaneously the data of the active, recovered and death cases. In this study, we used a year of data since the first cases were reported. We estimated the time-dependent basic reproduction numbers, $$ , and the fractions of infected but unaffected populations, to offer insights into containment and vaccine strategies in African countries. We found that $$ at the start of the pandemic but has since fallen to $$ . The unaffected fractions of the populations studied vary between $$ % of the recovered cases.