Trends in depression incidence in China, 1990-2019

Depression is one of the most widespread health burdens for the general population in China. This study aims to assess the long-term trends of depression incidence in China between 1990 and 2019.

The incidence data were drawn from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, and an age-period-cohort model was used in the analysis.

The net drift was -0.66% (95% CI: -0.79% to -0.53%) per year for both genders. For males, the local drift was lower than 0 (P<0.05) in those aged 10-54 years, and higher than 0 (P<0.05) in those aged 60-69 years. For females, the local drift was lower than 0 (P<0.05) in those aged 10-49 years and higher than 0 (P<0.05) in those aged 55-84 years. Females had a higher risk of depression incidence than males. Compared with the 1990-1994 period, the relative risk (RR) of depression incidence in 2015-2019 decreased by 12.2% in males and 12.3% in females, and compared to the 1903-1907 birth cohort, the cohort RRs in the 2008-2012 birth cohort decreased by 42.1% in males and 34.5% in females. Period and cohort RRs all showed an increased tendency in recent periods and birth cohorts.

These data are macrolevel estimates at the national level, may have ecological fallacies.

Although the age-standard incidence of depression has declined in China as a whole in the last three decades, the incidence of depression among older individuals has increased. More efforts are needed to promote the mental health of elderly individuals in China.