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Effectiveness of the movement control measures during the third wave of COVID-19 in Malaysia
Ahmed Syahmi Syafiq Md Zamri1, Sarbhan Singh1, Sumarni Mohd Ghazali1
1Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia.
Insights
Movement control measures in Malaysia significantly reduced COVID-19 transmission, lowering the reproduction rate by 59.1%. Stricter measures like MCO and CMCO were most effective in controlling cases during the third wave.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Public Health Interventions
Background:
- Malaysia implemented phased movement control measures (MCM) starting March 2020 to curb COVID-19 transmission.
- The third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic presented a critical period for evaluating these interventions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model to assess the impact of different MCM phases on COVID-19 transmissibility.
- To analyze the trend of COVID-19 cases in Malaysia during the third wave under varying control measures.
Main Methods:
- Three SEIR models were created using R programming software (ODIN interface).
- Models were calibrated with COVID-19 case data from September 1, 2020, to March 29, 2021.
- Validated models forecasted daily cases from October 14, 2020, to March 29, 2021, considering three MCM phases.
Main Results:
- The reproduction rate (R-value) decreased by 59.1%, from 2.2 during the Recovery Movement Control Order (RMCO) to 0.9 during the Movement Control Order (MCO) and Conditional MCO (CMCO).
- Observed cumulative and daily case numbers were substantially lower than forecasted, with reductions of 64.4-98.9% and 68.8-99.8%, respectively.
Conclusions:
- Movement control measures progressively reduced the COVID-19 reproduction rate in Malaysia.
- More stringent measures (MCO, CMCO) demonstrated greater effectiveness in lowering the R-value and case numbers during the third wave compared to the RMCO.
Objectives:
Starting in March 2020, movement control measures were instituted across several phases in Malaysia to break the chain of transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this study, we developed a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model to examine the effects of the various phases of movement control measures on disease transmissibility and the trend of cases during the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia.
Methods:
Three SEIR models were developed using the R programming software ODIN interface based on COVID-19 case data from September 1, 2020, to March 29, 2021. The models were validated and subsequently used to provide forecasts of daily cases from October 14, 2020, to March 29, 2021, based on 3 phases of movement control measures.
Results:
We found that the reproduction rate (R-value) of COVID-19 decreased by 59.1% from an initial high of 2.2 during the nationwide Recovery Movement Control Order (RMCO) to 0.9 during the Movement Control Order (MCO) and Conditional MCO (CMCO) phases. In addition, the observed cumulative and daily highest numbers of cases were much lower than the forecasted cumulative and daily highest numbers of cases (by 64.4-98.9% and 68.8-99.8%, respectively).
Conclusions:
The movement control measures progressively reduced the R-value during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, more stringent movement control measures such as the MCO and CMCO were effective for further lowering the R-value and case numbers during the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia due to their higher stringency than the nationwide RMCO.
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