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Slowed canonical progress in large fields of science.

Johan S G Chu1, James A Evans2,3,4

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|October 5, 2021
PubMed
Summary

A growing number of scientific papers may hinder knowledge advancement. Too many publications can lead to stagnation by overwhelming readers and preventing focus on novel ideas, suggesting a need for policy changes.

Keywords:
durable dominanceentrepreneurial futilityscience of sciencescience policyscientific progress

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Area of Science:

  • Bibliometrics
  • Scientometrics
  • Academic Publishing

Background:

  • Annual scientific paper output has surged across many academic disciplines.
  • Quantitative metrics like publication numbers influence academic careers and institutional evaluations.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate whether increased publication quantity translates to knowledge advancement.
  • To propose a theoretical framework suggesting excessive papers can cause stagnation.

Main Methods:

  • Theoretical argumentation on cognitive load and attention competition.
  • Empirical analysis of citation patterns in large scientific fields.

Main Results:

  • High publication volume leads to citations concentrating on established papers.
  • The list of highly cited papers becomes rigid, with new work rarely achieving high impact.
  • New papers are less likely to disrupt existing research paradigms.

Conclusions:

  • Large scientific fields may experience slowed progress, becoming 'trapped in existing canon'.
  • Current policies may inadvertently foster stagnation.
  • Revising policies for scientific production, dissemination, consumption, and reward is crucial for revitalizing research areas.