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Slowed canonical progress in large fields of science
Johan S G Chu1, James A Evans2,3,4
1Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, 60208; johan.chu@kellogg.northwestern.edu.
Summary
A growing number of scientific papers may hinder knowledge advancement. Too many publications can lead to stagnation by overwhelming readers and preventing focus on novel ideas, suggesting a need for policy changes.
Area of Science:
- Bibliometrics
- Scientometrics
- Academic Publishing
Background:
- Annual scientific paper output has surged across many academic disciplines.
- Quantitative metrics like publication numbers influence academic careers and institutional evaluations.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate whether increased publication quantity translates to knowledge advancement.
- To propose a theoretical framework suggesting excessive papers can cause stagnation.
Main Methods:
- Theoretical argumentation on cognitive load and attention competition.
- Empirical analysis of citation patterns in large scientific fields.
Main Results:
- High publication volume leads to citations concentrating on established papers.
- The list of highly cited papers becomes rigid, with new work rarely achieving high impact.
- New papers are less likely to disrupt existing research paradigms.
Conclusions:
- Large scientific fields may experience slowed progress, becoming 'trapped in existing canon'.
- Current policies may inadvertently foster stagnation.
- Revising policies for scientific production, dissemination, consumption, and reward is crucial for revitalizing research areas.
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