Economic disparity among generations under the Paris Agreement

Area of Science:

• Environmental Economics
• Climate Policy Analysis
• Intergenerational Equity

Background:

• Climate change mitigation costs and benefits are unevenly distributed across geography and time.
• Previous analyses have not fully evaluated the intergenerational distribution of these impacts across nations.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the lifetime costs and benefits of climate change mitigation for different age cohorts across countries.
• To assess the distribution of economic impacts under the Paris Agreement.

Main Methods:

• Economic modeling of lifetime gross domestic product per capita.
• Analysis of mitigation impacts by birth year cohorts.
• Cross-country comparisons, differentiating by income level.

Main Results:

• Age cohorts born before 1960 generally face a net reduction in lifetime economic prosperity.
• Younger cohorts (born after 1990) may see net benefits in lower-income countries, but not typically in higher-income nations.
• A widening disparity in costs and benefits between younger and older age cohorts is projected, especially in lower-income countries.

Conclusions:

• Climate change mitigation presents significant intergenerational and international equity challenges.
• The uneven economic outcomes hinder consensus-building for equitable global climate policies.
• Policy frameworks must address the disparate impacts on different age groups and nations.