Asymptomatic individuals can increase the final epidemic size under adaptive human behavior
Baltazar Espinoza1, Madhav Marathe2, Samarth Swarup2
1Biocomplexity Institute and Initiative, Network Systems Science and Advanced Computing Division, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA. baltazar.espinoza@virginia.edu.
Scientific Reports
|October 6, 2021
Summary
Behavioral adaptations to perceived infection risk, especially from non-symptomatic COVID-19 cases, can alter epidemic size. Risk misperception and symptomatic behavior significantly modulate transmission dynamics, with an optimal planning horizon minimizing the final epidemic size.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Behavioral Science
Background:
- Non-symptomatic individuals (pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic) are key drivers of COVID-19 transmission.
- Risk misperception by non-symptomatic individuals can lead to underestimation of infection transmission.
- Current epidemiological models often lack behavioral components and do not account for risk misperception.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the impact of behavioral adaptations on COVID-19 transmission dynamics.
- To analyze how risk misperception influences the final epidemic size.
- To understand the interplay between non-symptomatic and symptomatic individuals' behaviors.
Main Methods:
- Development of a mathematical model incorporating individual behavioral decisions.
- Inclusion of a finite planning horizon for future state projections.
- Analysis of behavioral responses to perceived infection risk.
Main Results:
- Risk misperception related to non-symptomatic individuals can either increase or decrease the final epidemic size.
- The behavior of symptomatic individuals modulates the impact of non-symptomatic infections.
- An optimal planning horizon was identified that minimizes the final epidemic size.
Conclusions:
- Behavioral factors and risk misperception are critical in understanding COVID-19 transmission.
- Mathematical models need to incorporate behavioral components for accurate epidemic prediction.
- Strategic planning horizons can be optimized to mitigate epidemic spread.
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