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Pulled Diversification Rates, Lineages-Through-Time Plots, and Modern Macroevolutionary Modeling.

Andrew J Helmstetter1, Sylvain Glemin2, Jos Käfer3

  • 1Fondation pour la Recherche sur la Biodiversité - Centre for the Synthesis and Analysis of Biodiversity, Institut Bouisson Bertrand, 5 Rue de l'École de Médecine, 34000 Montpellier, France.

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Estimating speciation and extinction rates from timetrees is crucial for understanding biodiversity. Recent findings question rate reliability, but diversification modeling remains a promising field for macroevolutionary studies.

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Area of Science:

  • Macroevolutionary biology
  • Phylogenetics
  • Biodiversity science

Background:

  • Estimating time-dependent speciation and extinction rates from phylogenetic trees (timetrees) is vital for understanding biodiversity.
  • The increasing availability of phylogenetic data has spurred the development of birth-death models for macroevolutionary research.
  • Recent criticisms question the reliability of these rate estimations, citing infinite possible diversification scenarios for any given timetree.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To summarize and clarify recent findings on the capacity of macroevolutionary models to disentangle diversification histories.
  • To address concerns about the reliability of speciation and extinction rate estimations.
  • To highlight the utility of newly proposed "pulled rates" using simulation studies.

Main Methods:

  • Literature review and synthesis of recent findings in macroevolutionary modeling.
  • Use of simulation studies to illustrate the characteristics and utility of "pulled rates".
  • Analysis of lineages-through-time (LTT) plots and their implications for diversification modeling.

Main Results:

  • Recent findings demonstrate that an infinite number of diversification scenarios can generate a single timetree, challenging rate estimation.
  • Simulation results illustrate the characteristics and utility of the newly proposed "pulled rates" method.
  • The study acknowledges limitations but emphasizes that recent findings do not invalidate diversification modeling.

Conclusions:

  • While recent findings highlight important limitations in macroevolutionary modeling, they do not warrant abandoning diversification rate estimation.
  • Diversification modeling using phylogenetic trees remains an exciting and promising area of research.
  • Acknowledging current limitations can help the scientific community better target future research efforts in macroevolution.