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Air temperatures over-predict changes to stream fish assemblages with climate warming compared with water
1Department of Zoology and Physiology, Program in Ecology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, 82071, USA.
Summary
Climate change impacts on aquatic life are often misjudged using air temperature. Stream-specific water temperature models are crucial for accurately predicting shifts in fish distribution, especially in mountain streams.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Climate Change Biology
- Aquatic Ecosystems
Background:
- Climate change projections for aquatic organisms often rely on air temperature, assuming a direct correlation with water temperature.
- This assumption is particularly problematic for high-elevation, mountainous streams which may be buffered from air temperature changes.
- Previous studies have not directly compared the influence of air versus water temperature models on predicting biotic responses to climate warming.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare the predictions of generalized air temperature models versus stream-specific water temperature models on aquatic organism distribution.
- To assess how different thermal guilds and native status groups respond to climate warming under each modeling approach.
- To evaluate the impact of model choice on predicting assemblage-level changes, including species richness and biotic homogenization.
Main Methods:
- Utilized stream fish assemblage data from 1,442 surveys across a mountain-plains gradient in Wyoming (1990-2018).
- Compared the responsiveness of thermal guilds, native status groups, and assemblage structure using generalized air temperature and stream-specific water temperature models.
- Analyzed predicted changes in species occurrence, range shifts, novel species combinations, local species richness, and biotic homogenization.
Main Results:
- Air temperature models predicted greater range shifts for warm-water species compared to water temperature models, leading to over-prediction of novel combinations and homogenization.
- Both models predicted similar declines in occurrence and range contractions for cold-water species.
- Water temperatures warmed at slower rates than air temperatures due to local buffering effects (e.g., riparian cover, groundwater) in high-elevation streams.
Conclusions:
- Generalized air temperature models can over-predict biotic changes in aquatic ecosystems, particularly for warm-water species, due to buffering effects on water temperature.
- Stream-specific water temperature models are recommended for more accurate predictions of climate-induced biotic shifts in mountainous, high-elevation streams.
- Accurate modeling is essential for effective conservation and management strategies under climate change scenarios.
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