Difference between arterial and end-tidal carbon dioxide and adverse events after non-cardiac surgery: a historical...

The difference between arterial and end-tidal partial pressure of carbon dioxide (ΔCO₂) is a measure of alveolar dead space, commonly evaluated intraoperatively. Given its relationship to ventilation and perfusion, ΔCO₂ may provide prognostic information and guide clinical decisions. We hypothesized that higher ΔCO₂ values are associated with occurrence of a composite outcome of re-intubation, postoperative mechanical ventilation, or 30-day mortality in patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery.

We conducted a historical cohort study of adult patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery with an arterial line at a single tertiary care medical centre. The composite outcome, identified from electronic health records, was re-intubation, postoperative mechanical ventilation, or 30-day mortality. Student's t test and Chi-squared test were used for univariable analysis. Logistic regression was used for multivariable analysis of the relationship of ΔCO₂ with the composite outcome.

A total of 19,425 patients were included in the final study population. Univariable analysis showed an association between higher mean (standard deviation [SD]) intraoperative ΔCO₂ values and the composite outcome (6.1 [5.3] vs 5.7 [4.5] mm Hg; P = 0.002). After adjusting for baseline subject characteristics, every 5-mm Hg increase in the ΔCO₂ was associated with a nearly 20% increased odds of the composite outcome (odds ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 1.12 to 1.28; P < 0.001).

In this patient population, increased intraoperative ΔCO₂ was associated with an increased odds of the composite outcome of postoperative mechanical ventilation, re-intubation, or 30-day mortality that was independent of its relationship with pre-existing pulmonary disease. Future studies are needed to determine if ΔCO₂ can be used to guide patient management and improve patient outcomes.