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Published on: July 24, 2016
Uncertainty analysis of model inputs in riverine water temperature simulations
Babak Abdi1, Omid Bozorg-Haddad2, Xuefeng Chu3
1Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Tehran, Iran.
Abstract:
Simulation models are often affected by uncertainties that impress the modeling results. One of the important types of uncertainties is associated with the model input data. The main objective of this study is to investigate the uncertainties of inputs of the Heat-Flux (HFLUX) model. To do so, the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis Uncertainty Algorithm (SCEM-UA), a Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) based method, is employed for the first time to assess the uncertainties of model inputs in riverine water temperature simulations. The performance of the SCEM-UA algorithm is further evaluated. In the application, the histograms of the selected inputs of the HFLUX model including the stream width, stream depth, percentage of shade, and streamflow were created and their uncertainties were analyzed. Comparison of the observed data and the simulations demonstrated the capability of the SCEM-UA algorithm in the assessment of the uncertainties associated with the model input data (the maximum relative error was 15%).
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