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Low case numbers enable long-term stable pandemic control without lockdowns.

Sebastian Contreras1,2, Jonas Dehning1, Sebastian B Mohr1

  • 1Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Am Faßberg 17, 37077 Göttingen, Germany.

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A third epidemic control strategy involves maintaining low case numbers through test-trace-and-isolate policies, avoiding widespread restrictions. This approach, when combined with vaccination, significantly reduces infections and fatalities.

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health Policy
  • Mathematical Modeling

Background:

  • Traditional epidemic control relies on eradication or population immunity.
  • Existing strategies often necessitate severe, prolonged restrictions or risk overwhelming healthcare systems.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify and analyze a third viable epidemic control strategy.
  • To define conditions for a stable low-case equilibrium.
  • To evaluate the efficacy of this strategy compared to others.

Main Methods:

  • Analytical derivation of epidemic model dynamics.
  • Mathematical modeling of disease spread under various policy interventions.
  • Simulation of case numbers and outcomes under different scenarios.

Main Results:

  • A stable equilibrium with low daily cases (≤10 per million) is achievable.
  • Test-trace-and-isolate policies can maintain control with moderate restrictions.
  • This strategy is robust to vaccination and variant emergence, reducing cases fourfold compared to hospital-collapse-avoidance strategies.

Conclusions:

  • A sustainable low-case equilibrium offers a viable alternative to traditional epidemic control.
  • Sustained, moderate contact reduction is key, avoiding the need for recurring lockdowns.
  • This strategy enhances epidemic management and mitigates severe outcomes.