A nomogram for predicting lymph node metastasis in superficial esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Area of Science:

• Oncology
• Gastroenterology
• Surgical Oncology

Background:

• Superficial esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SESCC) involves mucosal or submucosal invasion.
• Lymph node metastasis (LNM) is crucial for treatment planning and prognosis in esophageal cancer.
• Accurate prediction of LNM in SESCC is essential for patient management.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate a clinical nomogram for predicting LNM in patients with SESCC.
• To provide a tool for better risk stratification and personalized treatment strategies.
• To improve prognostic accuracy for SESCC patients.

Main Methods:

• A predictive model was developed using a training cohort of 711 SESCC patients who underwent esophagectomy.
• Internal validation was performed on the training cohort.
• External validation was conducted using a prospective cohort of 203 SESCC patients.

Main Results:

• The nomogram demonstrated good discrimination in internal validation (C-index, 0.860; 95% CI, 0.825-0.894).
• External validation confirmed good discrimination (C-index, 0.916; 95% CI, 0.860-0.971).
• The model showed favorable calibration and decision curve analysis.

Conclusions:

• The developed clinical nomogram is a reliable tool for predicting LNM in SESCC patients.
• This predictive model can assist clinicians in determining optimal training strategies and improving patient prognosis.
• The nomogram facilitates accurate prediction of LNM, supporting personalized treatment decisions for SESCC.