Stability of MDS-UPDRS Motor Subtypes Over Three Years in Early Parkinson's Disease

Background: Various classifications have been proposed to subtype Parkinson's disease (PD) based on their motor phenotypes. However, the stability of these subtypes has not been properly evaluated. Objective: The goal of this study was to understand the distribution of PD motor subtypes, their stability over time, and baseline factors that predicted subtype stability. Methods: Participants (n = 170) from two prospective cohorts were included: the Early PD Longitudinal Singapore (PALS) study and the National Neuroscience Institute Movement Disorders Database. Early PD patients were classified into tremor-dominant (TD), postural instability and gait difficulty (PIGD), and indeterminate subtypes according to the Movement Disorder Society's Unified PD Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS) criteria and clinically evaluated for three consecutive years. Results: At baseline, 60.6% patients were TD, 12.4% patients were indeterminate, and 27.1% patients were PIGD subtypes (p < 0.05). After 3 years, only 62% of patients in TD and 50% of patients in PIGD subtypes remained stable. The mean levodopa equivalent daily dose (LEDD) was higher in the PIGD subtype (276.92 ± 232.91 mg; p = 0.01). Lower LEDD [p < 0.05, odds ratio (OR) 0.99, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.98-0.99] and higher TD/PIGD ratios (p < 0.05, OR 1.77, 95% CI: 1.29-2.43) were independent predictors of stability of TD subtype with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.787 (95%CI: 0.669-0.876), sensitivity = 57.8%, and specificity = 89.7%. Conclusion: Only 50-62% of PD motor subtypes as defined by MDS-UPDRS remained stable over 3 years. TD/PIGD ratio and baseline LEDD were independent predictors for TD subtype stability over 3 years.