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Human mortality at extreme age.

Léo R Belzile1, Anthony C Davison2, Holger Rootzén3

  • 1Department of Decision Sciences, HEC Montréal, 3000, chemin de la Côte-Sainte-Catherine, Montréal, Quebec, Canada H3T 2A7.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Mortality rates for individuals over 108 years old remain constant, suggesting no upper limit to human lifespan. Analysis of Italian and French semi-supercentenarians found no significant differences between countries or cohorts.

Keywords:
exponential hazardextreme value theorysemi-supercentenarian

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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Biostatistics
  • Gerontology

Background:

  • Understanding mortality patterns in extreme old age is crucial for demographic projections and healthcare planning.
  • Semi-supercentenarians (aged 105+) represent a unique population for studying the limits of human longevity.
  • Previous studies have yielded mixed results regarding the existence of an upper bound to human lifespan.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze mortality patterns in Italian and French semi-supercentenarians using advanced statistical methods.
  • To investigate whether a constant force of mortality exists beyond age 108.
  • To determine if there are differences in mortality between countries, cohorts, and sexes at extreme ages.

Main Methods:

  • Application of extreme value statistics to model mortality.
  • Utilisation of survival analysis and computer-intensive methods.
  • Analysis of mortality data from Italian and French semi-supercentenarian populations, accounting for sampling frame effects.

Main Results:

  • Extreme-value modeling indicates a constant force of mortality beyond 108 years.
  • No significant differences in mortality were observed between Italian and French populations or cohorts after age 108.
  • Power calculations suggest an upper lifespan bound is unlikely to be below 130 years.
  • No sex differences in survival were found after age 108 in Italian data and the International Database on Longevity, but French men showed lower survival.

Conclusions:

  • The data supports a constant force of mortality beyond 108 years, implying no discernible upper limit to human lifespan.
  • Findings are consistent with Gompertz models and previous longevity research.
  • The physical upper bound for human lifespan, if it exists, is likely beyond current empirical observation.