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Published on: June 12, 2016
Land-based measures to mitigate climate change: Potential and feasibility by country
Stephanie Roe1,2, Charlotte Streck2,3, Robert Beach4
1Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA.
Cost-effective land-based climate mitigation offers 8–13.8 GtCO2eq/yr through 2050, primarily from ecosystems and agriculture. Realizing this potential requires addressing feasibility barriers, especially in developing nations.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Climate Policy
- Land Use Management
Background:
- Land-based climate mitigation is crucial for global climate policies.
- Previous studies estimated mitigation potentials, but require refinement and updated assessments.
- Integrated assessment models (IAMs) and sectoral estimates offer different perspectives on mitigation capacity.
Purpose of the Study:
- To refine and update land-based mitigation potentials for over 200 countries and five regions.
- To compare "bottom-up" sectoral estimates with IAMs for mitigation potentials.
- To assess the implementation feasibility of land-based mitigation measures at the country level.
Main Methods:
- Quantified mitigation potentials for 20 land-based measures across >200 countries and five regions.
- Compared sectoral estimates with integrated assessment models (IAMs).
- Assessed country-level implementation feasibility, considering governance, economic, and socio-cultural factors.
Main Results:
- Cost-effective land-based mitigation potential (up to $100/tCO2eq) is 8–13.8 GtCO2eq/yr between 2020–2050.
- Cost-effective potential represents ~40% of technical potential and aligns with a 1.5°C pathway.
- Forests/ecosystems (50%), agriculture (35%), and demand-side measures (15%) are key contributors; potential varies sixfold across regions.
- Feasibility is influenced by governance, investment, and socio-cultural factors, with 80% of potential in developing countries/LDCs.
Conclusions:
- Cost-effective land-based mitigation is substantial and actionable for policy.
- Forest protection and demand-side measures offer high efficiency, co-benefits, and lower costs.
- Overcoming feasibility barriers in developing countries is critical for near-term, low-cost mitigation and achieving adaptation/development benefits.
- Tailored, country-specific plans and enhanced investments are essential to unlock global land stewardship potential.
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