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Path Analysis to Assess Socio-Economic and Mitigation Measure Determinants for Daily Coronavirus Infections.
Elie Yammine1, Abbas Rammal1,2
1Statistics and Computer Science Department, Faculty of Science, Lebanese University, Baabda 1003, Lebanon.
Full lockdown measures and quarantine commitment significantly reduce daily COVID-19 infections. Factors like population density and medical resources indirectly influence disease spread.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- The rapid global spread of COVID-19 necessitates identifying key factors influencing its transmission.
- Understanding these factors is crucial for developing effective mitigation strategies and public health policies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify significant factors directly and indirectly affecting daily COVID-19 infections.
- To inform national authorities on adjusting public health interventions.
Main Methods:
- Path analysis was employed to analyze daily infection data from China, Italy, Iran, and Lebanon over 210 days (January-March 2020).
- The study examined the direct and indirect effects of various societal and resource-related factors on infection rates.
Main Results:
- Quarantine commitment (β = -0.823) and full lockdown measures (β = -0.775) demonstrated the strongest direct negative impact on daily infections.
- Indirect effects were observed for societal experience (β = -0.35), population density (β = -0.288), medical resources (β = 0.136), and economic resources (β = 0.142).
Conclusions:
- Directly, COVID-19 infections decrease with strict adherence to lockdown measures, quarantine, mask-wearing, and social distancing.
- Indirectly, factors such as population density, past experience with outbreaks, and resource availability influence infection dynamics.
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