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Interplay between mobility, multi-seeding and lockdowns shapes COVID-19 local impact.

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Mobility significantly impacts epidemic spread, with multiple infection sources (multi-seeding) non-linearly affecting outbreak peaks. This study reveals how mobility, local factors, and multi-seeding explain COVID-19

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Modeling
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Understanding mobility's role in epidemic spreading is vital for effective control policies.
  • The impact of multi-seeding (multiple independent introductions of infection) on epidemic dynamics is often underestimated.
  • Spatial heterogeneity in disease incidence is a key challenge in epidemic management.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the non-linear effects of multi-seeding and mobility on epidemic incidence and peak timing.
  • To explore how local demography and social mixing patterns modulate the impact of imported infections.
  • To explain observed spatial heterogeneities in COVID-19 incidence and mortality using multi-seeding and mobility restrictions.

Main Methods:

  • A modeling approach was employed to simulate epidemic dynamics.
  • Analysis included model simulations and data from five European countries during the first COVID-19 wave.
  • The study identified 'epidemic epicenters' based on their influence on national incidence and mortality peaks.

Main Results:

  • The number of initial infections (seeds) has a non-linear effect on the incidence peak and its timing.
  • The impact of each infection seed is amplified in smaller populations due to local demography and mixing patterns.
  • A combination of multi-seeding and mobility restrictions effectively explains spatial variations in COVID-19 outcomes.

Conclusions:

  • Mobility-driven multi-seeding plays a critical role in epidemic evolution and can significantly boost incidence.
  • Local factors amplify the effect of imported cases, with smaller populations being more susceptible.
  • Identifying epidemic epicenters is crucial for targeted control strategies and understanding national epidemic trajectories.