Developing socio-ecological scenarios: A participatory process for engaging stakeholders

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Climate Change Adaptation
• Socio-Ecological Systems Analysis

Background:

• Deltas face significant demographic, economic, and land-use changes, compounded by climate change and altered river catchment management.
• Bangladesh exemplifies these challenges with multiple climate risks including sea-level rise, temperature increases, and altered precipitation patterns.
• High population density and poverty in coastal Bangladesh exacerbate the difficulties in identifying effective policy and planning responses.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a participatory scenario process for integrated assessment of ecosystem services and livelihoods in coastal Bangladesh.
• To incorporate socio-economic and biophysical elements across multiple scales and sectors, driven by local stakeholders.
• To create a credible foundation for planning in complex socio-ecological systems with interacting factors.

Main Methods:

• A four-stage participatory scenario development process: meta-framework establishment, qualitative scenario development, quantitative translation for integrated assessment, and stakeholder review of results.
• Involving a diverse stakeholder group over four years in the design, implementation, and application of the assessment.
• Utilizing an iterative learning loop cycle through repeated review of model results and stakeholder insights.

Main Results:

• The participatory process fostered strong local ownership of scenarios and the overall assessment.
• Stakeholder engagement provided new insights into preferred adaptation and policy responses.
• The integrated assessment model analysis translated qualitative scenarios into quantitative data.

Conclusions:

• The described four-stage participatory scenario development process can be generalized for widespread application across socio-ecological systems.
• Sustained stakeholder engagement, linked to long-term research, is crucial for this approach.
• This method facilitates a more credible foundation for planning in complex environments with multiple interacting factors.