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Developing socio-ecological scenarios: A participatory process for engaging stakeholders.

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  • 1UNESCO Centre for Water Law, Policy and Science, School of Law, University of Dundee, Perth Road, Dundee DD1 4HN, UK.

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Summary

Developing participatory scenarios helps coastal Bangladesh address complex challenges like sea-level rise and poverty. This integrated approach fosters local ownership for effective policy and planning in vulnerable delta regions.

Keywords:
BangladeshClimate changeDeltasExtended SSPsGovernanceParticipatoryScenarios

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Climate Change Adaptation
  • Socio-Ecological Systems Analysis

Background:

  • Deltas face significant demographic, economic, and land-use changes, compounded by climate change and altered river catchment management.
  • Bangladesh exemplifies these challenges with multiple climate risks including sea-level rise, temperature increases, and altered precipitation patterns.
  • High population density and poverty in coastal Bangladesh exacerbate the difficulties in identifying effective policy and planning responses.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a participatory scenario process for integrated assessment of ecosystem services and livelihoods in coastal Bangladesh.
  • To incorporate socio-economic and biophysical elements across multiple scales and sectors, driven by local stakeholders.
  • To create a credible foundation for planning in complex socio-ecological systems with interacting factors.

Main Methods:

  • A four-stage participatory scenario development process: meta-framework establishment, qualitative scenario development, quantitative translation for integrated assessment, and stakeholder review of results.
  • Involving a diverse stakeholder group over four years in the design, implementation, and application of the assessment.
  • Utilizing an iterative learning loop cycle through repeated review of model results and stakeholder insights.

Main Results:

  • The participatory process fostered strong local ownership of scenarios and the overall assessment.
  • Stakeholder engagement provided new insights into preferred adaptation and policy responses.
  • The integrated assessment model analysis translated qualitative scenarios into quantitative data.

Conclusions:

  • The described four-stage participatory scenario development process can be generalized for widespread application across socio-ecological systems.
  • Sustained stakeholder engagement, linked to long-term research, is crucial for this approach.
  • This method facilitates a more credible foundation for planning in complex environments with multiple interacting factors.