COVID-19 vaccination program in the mainland of China: a subnational descriptive analysis on target population size...

China is facing substantial risks of imported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and a domestic resurgence in the long run, and COVID-19 vaccination is expected to be the long-lasting solution to end the pandemic. We aim to estimate the size of the target population for COVID-19 vaccination at the provincial level in the mainland of China, and summarize the current progress of vaccination programs, which could support local governments in the timely determination and adjustment of vaccination policies and promotional measures.

We conducted a descriptive study of the entire population in the mainland of China, between December 2020 and August 2021. By extracting provincial-stratified data from publicly available sources, we estimated the size of priority target groups for vaccination programs, and further characterized the ongoing vaccination program at the provincial level, including the total doses administered, the coverage rate, and the vaccination capacity needed to achieve the target coverage of 80% by the end of 2021. We used R (version 4.1.0) to complete the descriptive statistics.

The size of the target population shows large differences among provinces, ranging from 3.4 million to 108.4 million. As of 31 August, 2021, the speed of vaccine roll-out differs considerably as well, with the highest coverage occurring in Beijing and Shanghai, where 88.5% and 79.1% of the population has been fully vaccinated, respectively. In 22 of 31 provincial-level administrative divisions (PLADs), more than 70% of the population was administered at least one dose by August. With the current vaccination capacity, the target of 80% coverage could be achieved by 2021 in 28 PLADs.

Disparities exist in the target population size and vaccination progress across provinces in the mainland of China. China has made great strides in the vaccination speed since roll-out, and could basically achieve the targeted vaccine coverage.