Four decades of the Bart's Oxford study: Improved tests to predict type 1 diabetes

Recent success in clinical trials to delay the onset of type 1 diabetes has heralded a new era of type 1 diabetes research focused on the most accurate methods to predict risk and progression rate in the general population. Risk prediction for type 1 diabetes has been ongoing since the 1970s and 1980s when human leucocyte antigen (HLA) variants and islet autoantibodies associated with type 1 diabetes were first described. Development of prediction methodologies has relied on well-characterised cohorts and samples. The Bart's Oxford (BOX) study of type 1 diabetes has been recruiting children with type 1 diabetes and their first (and second)-degree relatives since 1985. In this review, we use the timeline of the study to review the accompanying basic science developments which have facilitated improved prediction by genetic (HLA analysis through to genetic risk scores) and biochemical strategies (islet cell autoantibodies through to improved individual tests for antibodies to insulin, glutamate decarboxylase, the tyrosine phosphatase IA-2, zinc transporter 8 and tetraspanin 7). The type 1 diabetes community are poised to move forward using the best predictive markers to predict and delay the onset of type 1 diabetes.