Mandibular reconstruction system reliability analysis using probabilistic finite element method

The aim of this study was to design for mandibular reconstruction of large lateral defect with minimum target reliability with designated confidence interval under bite force range of 300 ± 102 N. The performance of the models has been evaluated by numerical analysis considering the uncertainty of input parameters. Computer-Aided design was used to develop the models of three designs according to the patient's anatomy and to achieve to near symmetry of the mandible. Stress-strength modeling was utilized for the probabilistic physics of failure analysis under assumption of a quasi-static load. Monte-Carlo simulation was also applied for probabilistic finite element analysis and reliability assessment. The sensitivity analysis of the models was developed to reflect the significance of the variables in the models. The deterministic stress analysis shows that the highest stress and the second maximum stress are 110 MPa and 85 MPa for cortical bone around the screws, respectively. Also, it is determined that the maximum plate stress of the titanium conventional plate model is 580 MPa. The reconstruction system success rate was improved in all models by observing the anatomy of the patient's mandible in the plate designs by computer-aided design and additive manufacturing techniques. Based on the results, the reliability of plate strength and pull-out screws strength are 99.99% and 96.71% for the fibula free flap model, respectively, and 99.99% and 94.17%, respectively, for the customized prosthesis model. Probability sensitivity factors showed that uncertainty in the elastic modulus of the cortical bone has the greatest effect on the probability of screws loosening.