Acute Angle of Multilobulated Contours Improves the Risk Classification of Thymomas

Background: Computed tomography plays an important role in the identification and characterization of thymomas. It has been mainly used during preoperative evaluation for clinical staging. However, the reliable prediction of histological risk types of thymomas based on CT imaging features requires further study. In this study, we developed and validated a nomogram based on CT imaging and included new indices for individualized preoperative prediction of the risk classification of thymomas. Methods: We conducted a retrospective, multicenter study that included 229 patients from two Chinese medical centers. All the patients underwent cross-sectional CT imaging within 2 weeks before surgery. The results of pathological assessments were retrieved from existing reports of the excised lesions. The tumor perimeter that contacted the lung (TPCL) was evaluated and a new quantitative indicator, the acute angle (AA) formed by adjacent lobulations, was measured. Two predictive models of risk classification were created using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method in a training cohort for features selection. The model with a smaller Akaike information criterion was then used to create an individualized imaging nomogram, which we evaluated regarding its prediction ability and clinical utility. Results: A new CT imaging-based model incorporating AA was developed and validated, which had improved predictive performance during risk classification of thymomas when compared with a model using traditional imaging predictors. The new imaging nomogram with AA demonstrated its clinical utility by decision curve analysis. Conclusions: Acute angle can improve the performance of a CT-based predictive model during the preoperative risk classification of thymomas and should be considered a new imaging marker for the evaluation and treatment of patients with thymomas. On the contrary, TPCL is not useful as a predictor for the risk classification of thymomas in this study.