COVID-19 Containment Ship Model: A Case Study for Pacific Island Response

The Republic of the Marshall Islands, American Samoa, the Federated States of Micronesia, and the Republic of Palau have been without any COVID-19 community transmission since the beginning of the global pandemic. The Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands has experienced modest community transmission, and Guam has had significant COVID-19 community transmission and morbidity. Although several of these United States Affiliated Pacific Island jurisdictions made difficult strategic choices to prevent the spread of COVID-19 which have been largely successful, the built environment and the population density in the urban areas of the Pacific remain inherently conducive to rapid COVID-19 transmission. Rapid transmission could result in devastating health and economic consequences in the absence of continued vigilance and long-term strategic measures. The unique COVID-19 vulnerability of islands in the Pacific can be modeled through examination of recent outbreaks onboard several United States Naval ships and other marine vessels. The environmental characteristics that pose challenges to infection control on an isolated naval ship are analogous to the environmental characteristics of these Pacific island communities. Considering a collection of case studies of COVID-19 transmission on ships and applying to Pacific Island environments, provides a heuristic, easily accessible epidemiologic framework to identify methods for interventions that are practical and reliable towards COVID-19 containment, prevention, and control. Using accessible evidence based public health policies, infection risk can be decreased with the objective of maintaining in-country health and social stability. These case studies have also been examined for their relevance to current discussions of health care infrastructure and policy in the Pacific Islands, especially that of vaccination and repatriation of citizens marooned in other countries. The need for aggressive preparation on the parts of territories and nations not yet heavily exposed to the virus is critical to avoid a rapid "burn-through" of disease across the islands, which would likely result in catastrophic consequences.