Factors affecting aerosol SARS-CoV-2 transmission via HVAC systems; a modeling study

The role of heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is unclear. To address this gap, we simulated the release of SARS-CoV-2 in a multistory office building and three social gathering settings (bar/restaurant, nightclub, wedding venue) using a well-mixed, multi-zone building model similar to those used by Wells, Riley, and others. We varied key factors of HVAC systems, such as the Air Changes Per Hour rate (ACH), Fraction of Outside Air (FOA), and Minimum Efficiency Reporting Values (MERV) to examine their effect on viral transmission, and additionally simulated the protective effects of in-unit ultraviolet light decontamination (UVC) and separate in-room air filtration. In all building types, increasing the ACH reduced simulated infections, and the effects were seen even with low aerosol emission rates. However, the benefits of increasing the fraction of outside air and filter efficiency rating were greatest when the aerosol emission rate was high. UVC filtration improved the performance of typical HVAC systems. In-room filtration in an office setting similarly reduced overall infections but worked better when placed in every room. Overall, we found little evidence that HVAC systems facilitate SARS-CoV-2 transmission; most infections in the simulated office occurred near the emission source, with some infections in individuals temporarily visiting the release zone. HVAC systems only increased infections in one scenario involving a marginal increase in airflow in a poorly ventilated space, which slightly increased the likelihood of transmission outside the release zone. We found that improving air circulation rates, increasing filter MERV rating, increasing the fraction of outside air, and applying UVC radiation and in-room filtration may reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission indoors. However, these mitigation measures are unlikely to provide a protective benefit unless SARS-CoV-2 aerosol emission rates are high (>1,000 Plaque-forming units (PFU) / min).