Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research: The EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines.

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Infectious Disease Modeling

Background:

• Decades of infectious disease outbreaks, including COVID-19, highlight the need for robust epidemic forecasting and prediction research.
• Existing medical research fields have reporting guidelines, but epidemic forecasting lacks standardized reporting criteria.
• This gap hinders the consistency, reproducibility, and quality of forecasting studies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and introduce the EPIFORGE checklist, a novel guideline for the standardized reporting of epidemic forecasting and prediction research.
• To enhance the quality, consistency, and comparability of scientific reporting in epidemic forecasting.
• To provide a benchmark for reporting critical methodological details in infectious disease modeling studies.

Main Methods:

• The EPIFORGE checklist was developed using a best-practice approach for guideline creation.
• A Delphi process involving international experts in infectious disease modeling was employed.
• Broad consultation with modelers and end-users ensured comprehensive input and relevance.

Main Results:

• The EPIFORGE checklist provides a standardized framework for reporting epidemic forecasting research.
• The checklist aims to improve the consistency and reproducibility of forecasting study methodologies.
• It serves as a reporting standard, not a guide for conducting research.

Conclusions:

• The EPIFORGE checklist has been submitted to the EQUATOR network for wider dissemination.
• The guideline is also available on dedicated webpages to encourage feedback and journal endorsement.
• Standardized reporting through EPIFORGE is expected to advance the field of epidemic forecasting.