Transmission dynamics of Monkeypox virus: a mathematical modelling approach

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Biology
• Virology

Background:

• Monkeypox (MPX), caused by the monkeypox virus (MPXV), is an orthopoxvirus endemic to West and Central African rainforests.
• MPXV shares similarities with smallpox and cowpox viruses, necessitating research into its transmission dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and analyze a deterministic mathematical model for monkeypox virus transmission.
• To determine the local and global stability of disease-free and endemic equilibria.
• To investigate the phenomenon of backward bifurcation in MPX transmission.

Main Methods:

• Development of a deterministic mathematical model for MPXV transmission.
• Analysis of local and global asymptotic stability for disease-free and endemic states.
• Numerical simulations to validate model predictions.

Main Results:

• The model demonstrates the possibility of backward bifurcation, where a stable disease-free equilibrium coexists with an endemic equilibrium.
• Conditions for global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium were established.
• Numerical simulations confirmed the analytical findings regarding disease dynamics.

Conclusions:

• Isolation of infected individuals is an effective strategy to reduce monkeypox transmission in human populations.
• Mathematical modeling provides valuable insights into MPXV epidemiology and control.
• Understanding disease dynamics, including backward bifurcation, is essential for public health interventions.