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Systematic over-crediting in California's forest carbon offsets program.
Grayson Badgley1,2, Jeremy Freeman3, Joseph J Hamman3,4
1Black Rock Forest, Cornwall, New York, USA.
Global Change Biology
|October 20, 2021
Summary
California's forest carbon offsets program over-credits emissions reductions, providing billions in excess credits. This undermines the program's goal of achieving real climate benefits through forest management.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Climate Policy
- Forestry
Background:
- Carbon offsets are utilized globally to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.
- The validity of carbon offsets relies on demonstrating real and additional climate benefits.
- California's forest carbon offsets program is a prominent example of such a mechanism.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the design and effectiveness of California's forest carbon offsets program.
- To assess whether the program's offset credits represent equivalent climate benefits.
- To identify systemic issues leading to potential over-crediting.
Main Methods:
- Digitization and analysis of comprehensive offset project records.
- Detailed forest inventory data analysis.
- Comparison of project carbon stocks against regional averages.
Main Results:
- California's program systematically over-credits forest carbon offsets.
- An estimated 30.0 million tCO2e (29.4%) in excess credits were issued.
- These excess credits are valued at approximately $410 million.
- The program design incentivizes credit generation over actual carbon storage improvements.
Conclusions:
- California's forest carbon offsets program fails to deliver equivalent climate benefits as claimed.
- The methodology of comparing projects to regional averages leads to significant over-crediting.
- The program's incentives are misaligned with the goal of enhancing forest carbon sequestration.
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