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A Multivariate Model to Predict Chronic Heart Failure after Acute ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction:
Valentin Elievich Oleynikov1, Elena Vladimirovna Averyanova1, Anastasia Aleksandrovna Oreshkina1
1Department of Therapy, Medical Institute, Penza State University, 440026 Penza, Russia.
Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland)
|October 23, 2021
Summary
A new model predicts chronic heart failure (CHF) risk after myocardial infarction. This tool helps identify high-risk patients early for better management.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Medical Prognostics
Background:
- ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) survivors face a significant risk of developing decompensated chronic heart failure (CHF).
- Early identification of patients at high risk for CHF progression post-STEMI is crucial for timely intervention and improved outcomes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a multivariate model for predicting the risk of decompensated CHF within 48 weeks following STEMI.
- To assess the diagnostic efficiency of the developed predictive model.
Main Methods:
- The study involved 173 STEMI patients, utilizing 2D speckle-tracking echocardiography (STE) and 24-hour ECG monitoring for parameters including global longitudinal strain (GLS) and heart rate turbulence (HRT).
- A multivariate model was constructed using data from 113 patients (Group M) and validated on 60 patients (Group T).
Main Results:
- The predictive model incorporated HRT, left ventricular end-systolic dimension (ESD), and GLS.
- The model demonstrated significant predictive value for CHF progression, with HRT (RR 3.92), ESD (RR 1.04), and GLS (RR 0.9) as key factors.
- Validation showed high diagnostic performance: 83.3% specificity, 95.8% sensitivity, and 93.3% accuracy.
Conclusions:
- The developed multivariate model effectively predicts CHF progression in STEMI patients within 48 weeks.
- The model exhibits high diagnostic efficiency and can be utilized in the early stages post-myocardial infarction for patient risk stratification.
Keywords:
24-h ECG monitoring2D echocardiographychronic heart failureheart rate variabilitymyocardial infarctionMore Related Videos
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